Bold warning: a sweeping drought has left vast stretches of Victoria, and large areas of southern Australia, at higher risk of devastating bushfires as winter approaches.
Experts warn that bone-dry conditions across a substantial portion of Victoria are elevating bushfire risk in the autumn lead-up. The peak fire authority AFAC has identified parts of Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia, and Western Australia where the threat is expected to rise through autumn.
Across Victoria, and into southern, central, and eastern New South Wales, the south-east corner of South Australia, and parts of southern Western Australia, there is an increased likelihood of significant bushfires compared with the autumn average.
AFAC chief executive Rob Webb attributed the heightened risk to ongoing dryness and persistent soil moisture deficits. He noted that in many parts of southern Australia, autumn typically brings a gradual drop in fire activity and an opportunity to carry out prescribed burns. Yet, current conditions may delay these programs in some areas.
This outlook covers three months. Even with the forecast rain in the southeast in the near term, much more rainfall would be needed to reverse long-term moisture shortfalls.
Emergency Management Victoria’s Deputy Commissioner, Brett Boatman, said nearly all of Victoria, except East Gippsland and the Mallee, will face elevated bushfire risk through autumn. He warned that a hot, dry summer followed by more than two years of dryness has left the landscape with extensive dead and dry vegetation.
Forecasters expect a drier-than-average autumn with warmer-than-average temperatures, which will boost fuel availability and the potential for fires to ignite and spread.
Recent falls of rain have watered some of the parched vegetation but do not remove the overall risk, Boatman emphasized. Residents in high-risk zones are urged to stay vigilant and have a bushfire plan ready.
The AFAC outlook was developed by fire specialists across Australia, in collaboration with climate predictions and fire-weather experts from the Bureau of Meteorology.
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